Photo courtesy of The New York Times
Since COVID-19 plagued the United States and the world over a year ago, past horrific scenes from the severe disease are “now history,” according to John Bell, a regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and the U.K. government’s life sciences advisor.
On Tuesday, Bell appeared on BBC Radio 4 as he analyzed data from the U.K., as coronavirus cases have skyrocketed and hospital admissions have reached their highest since March. However, he said that the number of vaccinated people in the ICUs remains “very, very low,” according to CNBC.
“The incidence of severe disease and death from this disease [Covid] has basically not changed since we all got vaccinated, and that’s really important to remember,” he told the BBC.
“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago — intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely — that is now history in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.”
Discussing the new Omicron variant, he added, “The disease does appear to be less severe, and many people spend a relatively short time in hospital. They don’t need high-flow oxygen, average length of stay is apparently three da. This is not the same disease as we were seeing a year ago.”
According to a U.K. government study published Thursday, people who have contracted the COVID Omicron variant are less likely to be hospitalized than the previous Delta strain.
The U.K. Health Security Agency stated that individuals with Omicron are 31% to 45% less likely to seek emergency attention than those with delta are 50% to 70% less likely to be hospitalized.
“Bell said the analysis is “preliminary and highly uncertain,” with small numbers of Omicron cases currently in hospitals. Still, it does tally with similar findings from scientists in South Africa and research teams at Imperial College London and the University of Edinburgh,” CNBC reported.
While the number of daily deaths remains low as early research suggests the Omicron variant is less severe than past strains, health experts warned that fatalities are likely to increase, and the health system could be at risk.
Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, told CNBC in an email last week that Omicron may be “milder” than other strains. Still, the variant can double or triple the caseload with the number of people requiring hospitalization in the U.K., where the virus is a potential risk to unvaccinated people.
“At a time when NHS (National Health Service) are a) massively depleted by Omicron and b) massively stretched and fatigued after two thankless years on the frontline, this would be untenable,” adding there are “no green shoots yet,” said Bell, as the omicron variant quickly spreads across Britain.
On Monday, U.K. leader Boris Johnson delayed enacting any new COVID-19 restrictions for England.
Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have already implemented new guidelines to limit the spread of the Omicron variant, but England has maintained their current stay-at-home orders while advising citizens to wear a mask.
Bell said Tuesday that Johnson’s deferred action on Monday was “probably fine” and noted that people’s behavior in England had changed with many being “pretty responsible.” However, hospital admissions are still below 400 a day in London.
With the current surge of coronavirus cases in the U.K., more than 12.4 million people were infected, and another 129,471 was confirmed on Tuesday. According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, there have been at least 148,488 deaths since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.